Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2351 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 2351 DFW 07:15 → BOS 12:08 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 2306 DFW 14:51 → BOS 19:44 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2351 Delta Flight history →	DFW 07:15	BOS 12:08	9%	3%	0.7%	88%
AA 1438 American Flight history →	DFW 07:13	BOS 12:10	14%	4%	0.9%	81%
AA 1206 American Flight history →	DFW 08:50	BOS 13:37	15%	4%	0.8%	82%
DL 760 Delta Flight history →	DFW 11:20	BOS 16:14	21%	8%	0.7%	68%
DL 1809 Delta	DFW 17:12	BOS 22:01	24%	10%	0.7%	no record
AA 3102 American Flight history →	DFW 09:48	BOS 14:44	24%	7%	0.8%	67%
AA 1401 American Flight history →	DFW 12:31	BOS 17:25	29%	14%	0.8%	44%
AA 2567 American Flight history →	DFW 17:31	BOS 22:44	29%	14%	0.8%	56%
AA 1366 American Flight history →	DFW 19:34	BOS 00:27	29%	12%	0.9%	64%
AA 1268 American	DFW 18:51	BOS 23:58	30%	11%	0.9%	no record
AA 410 American	DFW 16:45	BOS 21:53	31%	16%	0.8%	no record
AA 2306 American Flight history →	DFW 14:51	BOS 19:44	33%	15%	0.8%	55%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183	1h 01m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → BOS 12:00DL 2648	5h 40m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	DFW 13:24 → DTW 17:10DL 735	48m Detroit	DTW 17:58 → BOS 20:00DL 1707	5h 36m	78%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON