Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1724 at 11:50 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1724 American Flight history →	DFW 11:50	BUF 16:01	23%	8%	1.1%	76%
AA 574 American Flight history →	DFW 18:45	BUF 22:50	33%	13%	1.0%	58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DFW 04:55 → CLT 08:38AA 1091	1h 43m Charlotte	CLT 10:21 → BUF 12:16AA 1203	6h 21m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 16:33 → BUF 18:41DL 2050	7h 35m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	DFW 11:16 → MSP 13:44DL 2972	1h 38m Minneapolis	MSP 15:22 → BUF 18:24DL 1749	6h 08m	95%	83%
American Details →	DFW 07:00 → CLT 10:44AA 317	3h 05m Charlotte	CLT 13:49 → BUF 15:43AA 2442	7h 43m	100%	82%
American Details →	DFW 05:02 → DCA 09:03AA 1618	58m Washington	DCA 10:01 → BUF 11:41AA 4647 · flown by Republic	5h 39m	92%	81%
United Details →	DFW 07:20 → IAD 11:26UA 2639	1h 33m Dulles	IAD 12:59 → BUF 14:25UA 4335 · flown by CommuteAir	6h 05m	97%	77%
United Details →	DFW 13:44 → DEN 14:55UA 248	2h 38m Denver	DEN 17:33 → BUF 22:45UA 731	8h 01m	96%	74%
United Details →	DFW 12:00 → ORD 14:42UA 1401	3h 18m Chicago	ORD 18:00 → BUF 20:41UA 1335	7h 41m	98%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON