Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1208 at 10:17 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1208 American Flight history →	DFW 10:17	BUR 11:49	18%	6%	1.2%	75%
AA 2597 American Flight history →	DFW 18:54	BUR 20:26	30%	10%	1.2%	63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 2 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 07:45 → SLC 09:31DL 1291	1h 14m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest	6h 09m	95%	88%
Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483	9h 35m	100%	83%
United Details →	DFW 06:00 → SFO 07:47UA 790	46m San Francisco	SFO 08:33 → BUR 09:57UA 2363	5h 57m	88%	79%
Frontier Details →	DFW 08:53 → LAS 09:56F9 1051	1h 19m Las Vegas	LAS 11:15 → BUR 12:41F9 4107	5h 48m	94%	75%
Alaska Details →	DFW 09:00 → SEA 11:20AS 365	2h 35m Seattle	SEA 13:55 → BUR 16:24AS 529	9h 24m	98%	70%
Alaska Details →	DFW 06:24 → SEA 08:45AS 543	1h 26m Seattle	SEA 10:11 → BUR 12:40AS 478	8h 16m	95%	65%
Alaska Details →	DFW 13:02 → SEA 15:23AS 415	1h 05m Seattle	SEA 16:28 → BUR 18:57AS 530	7h 55m	83%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON