Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2314 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 2314 DFW 07:10 → BWI 11:32 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 2251 DFW 19:37 → BWI 23:43 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2314 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	BWI 11:32	11%	4%	0.8%	80%
F9 1476 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:22	BWI 11:43	14%	4%	0.9%	73%
AA 2669 American	DFW 10:45	BWI 15:02	17%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2805 American Flight history →	DFW 14:32	BWI 18:50	24%	7%	0.7%	79%
AA 2251 American Flight history →	DFW 19:37	BWI 23:43	27%	9%	0.8%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON