Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: MQ 4315 at 15:45 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–28%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4315 DFW 15:45 → CAE 19:27 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3260 DFW 18:36 → CAE 22:16 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4315 Envoy	DFW 15:45	CAE 19:27	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
MQ 4066 Envoy	DFW 13:16	CAE 16:45	14%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 5437 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 09:53	CAE 13:23	17%	5%	1.0%	81%
AA 3260 American	DFW 18:36	CAE 22:16	28%	10%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON