Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: MQ 3900 at 08:44 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–23%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3900 DFW 08:44 → CHA 11:48 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1271 DFW 19:27 → CHA 22:42 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3900 Envoy	DFW 08:44	CHA 11:48	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 5471 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 16:41	CHA 19:48	17%	10%	1.0%	73%
AA 2037 American	DFW 12:24	CHA 15:38	17%	9%	0.9%	no record
AA 1271 American	DFW 19:27	CHA 22:42	23%	12%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON