Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1172 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 1172 DFW 07:05 → CLE 10:54 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AA 1484 DFW 17:26 → CLE 21:14 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1172 American Flight history →	DFW 07:05	CLE 10:54	12%	4%	1.0%	100%worse than usual
AA 2336 American Flight history →	DFW 10:52	CLE 14:40	19%	6%	0.9%	63%
AA 1230 American	DFW 15:00	CLE 18:48	30%	9%	1.0%	no record
AA 1484 American Flight history →	DFW 17:26	CLE 21:14	34%	11%	1.0%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON