Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1091 at 04:55 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 1091 DFW 04:55 → CLT 08:38 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 3002 DFW 18:49 → CLT 22:32 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1091 American Flight history →	DFW 04:55	CLT 08:38	7%	2%	0.8%	96%
AA 317 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	CLT 10:44	10%	3%	0.8%	86%
AA 2168 American	DFW 08:39	CLT 12:26	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
F9 3110 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 06:29	CLT 10:14	12%	4%	1.2%	78%
AA 2493 American	DFW 09:59	CLT 13:41	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1696 American Flight history →	DFW 11:55	CLT 15:36	18%	5%	0.8%	72%
AA 3227 American	DFW 14:19	CLT 18:02	23%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 2013 American	DFW 15:59	CLT 19:42	23%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 1703 American Flight history →	DFW 17:54	CLT 21:44	23%	8%	0.8%	67%
AA 3002 American	DFW 18:49	CLT 22:32	24%	7%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON