Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1552 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 1552 DFW 08:30 → COS 09:45 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest AA 1170 DFW 13:55 → COS 15:02 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1552 American Flight history →	DFW 08:30	COS 09:45	12%	5%	0.8%	71%
AA 6390 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 11:28	COS 12:37	16%	7%	0.8%	89%
OO 6234 SkyWest	DFW 15:46	COS 16:48	22%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 6267 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 17:27	COS 18:34	27%	9%	0.8%	65%
AA 1170 American Flight history →	DFW 13:55	COS 15:02	27%	8%	0.8%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON