Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2610 at 07:48 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 2610 DFW 07:48 → CVG 11:21 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 799 DFW 17:27 → CVG 20:53 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2610 American Flight history →	DFW 07:48	CVG 11:21	11%	3%	0.8%	87%
AA 3305 American Flight history →	DFW 10:49	CVG 14:15	14%	4%	0.8%	81%
AA 2919 American Flight history →	DFW 15:11	CVG 18:43	25%	7%	0.8%	57%
AA 799 American Flight history →	DFW 17:27	CVG 20:53	26%	7%	0.8%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON