Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1618 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 1618 DFW 05:02 → DCA 09:03 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 472 DFW 17:15 → DCA 21:31 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1618 American Flight history →	DFW 05:02	DCA 09:03	8%	2%	0.9%	88%
AA 1623 American Flight history →	DFW 07:02	DCA 10:59	8%	3%	1.0%	86%
AA 1177 American Flight history →	DFW 08:40	DCA 12:42	12%	4%	0.8%	85%
AA 2399 American	DFW 09:33	DCA 13:43	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1414 American Flight history →	DFW 11:54	DCA 15:59	17%	6%	0.8%	70%
AA 2520 American	DFW 14:46	DCA 18:57	23%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 2752 American Flight history →	DFW 18:52	DCA 22:59	25%	9%	0.9%	62%
AA 472 American Flight history →	DFW 17:15	DCA 21:31	27%	10%	0.8%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON