Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 773 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–39%.

Safest bet that day UA 773 DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:54 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2235 DFW 18:30 → DEN 19:41 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 773 United Flight history →	DFW 05:45	DEN 06:54	4%	2%	0.6%	95%
F9 2549 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 06:58	DEN 08:09	13%	4%	0.8%	85%
F9 1323 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 10:42	DEN 11:55	15%	5%	0.7%	77%
AA 1523 American Flight history →	DFW 07:05	DEN 08:08	15%	4%	0.8%	81%
UA 2049 United Flight history →	DFW 11:35	DEN 12:45	17%	5%	0.6%	84%
UA 567 United	DFW 08:58	DEN 10:01	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 248 United Flight history →	DFW 13:44	DEN 14:55	18%	6%	0.6%	83%
AA 1756 American Flight history →	DFW 08:35	DEN 09:42	19%	4%	0.7%	77%
AA 2359 American Flight history →	DFW 10:41	DEN 11:46	22%	5%	0.7%	73%
UA 309 United	DFW 18:21	DEN 19:30	24%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1303 United Flight history →	DFW 16:50	DEN 18:20	24%	8%	0.6%	59%
F9 2631 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 14:56	DEN 16:08	25%	8%	0.8%	76%
AA 420 American Flight history →	DFW 13:17	DEN 14:21	28%	6%	0.7%	77%
AA 1832 American Flight history →	DFW 14:26	DEN 15:30	31%	8%	0.7%	62%
AA 1322 American Flight history →	DFW 16:13	DEN 17:19	34%	9%	0.8%	49%
AA 2235 American Flight history →	DFW 18:30	DEN 19:41	39%	8%	0.8%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON