Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: OH 5560 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–27%.

Safest bet that day OH 5560 DFW 07:15 → DSM 09:16 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2229 DFW 17:13 → DSM 19:20 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5560 PSA	DFW 07:15	DSM 09:16	11%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1664 American Flight history →	DFW 13:19	DSM 15:24	21%	8%	0.8%	60%
AA 2229 American Flight history →	DFW 17:13	DSM 19:20	27%	12%	0.9%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON