Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2183 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 2183 DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 2508 DFW 17:25 → DTW 21:16 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2183 Delta Flight history →	DFW 05:20	DTW 09:04	4%	2%	0.6%	94%
F9 3178 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 06:00	DTW 09:52	9%	3%	0.8%	95%
AA 3101 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	DTW 10:52	11%	3%	0.7%	85%
DL 2746 Delta Flight history →	DFW 11:19	DTW 15:02	11%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 735 Delta Flight history →	DFW 13:24	DTW 17:10	14%	4%	0.6%	79%
AA 690 American Flight history →	DFW 11:17	DTW 15:07	19%	5%	0.7%	68%
DL 1441 Delta Flight history →	DFW 18:35	DTW 22:20	21%	5%	0.6%	80%
F9 3990 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 17:43	DTW 21:38	21%	8%	0.8%	76%
AA 2822 American	DFW 15:11	DTW 19:02	27%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 2508 American Flight history →	DFW 17:25	DTW 21:16	29%	8%	0.8%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON