Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: MQ 3769 at 12:25 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–31%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3769 DFW 12:25 → ELP 13:18 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 555 DFW 18:01 → ELP 18:57 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3769 Envoy	DFW 12:25	ELP 13:18	13%	2%	0.8%	no record
MQ 3981 Envoy	DFW 16:09	ELP 17:02	16%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 1365 American Flight history →	DFW 08:20	ELP 09:16	16%	5%	1.0%	73%
AA 1658 American	DFW 10:46	ELP 11:41	18%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 1681 American Flight history →	DFW 14:37	ELP 15:33	27%	9%	1.1%	57%
AA 555 American Flight history →	DFW 18:01	ELP 18:57	31%	10%	1.4%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON