Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2215 at 05:54 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34%.

Safest bet that day UA 2215 DFW 05:54 → EWR 10:28 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2861 DFW 14:37 → EWR 19:12 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2215 United	DFW 05:54	EWR 10:28	6%	3%	1.0%	no record
UA 1847 United Flight history →	DFW 06:00	EWR 10:29	7%	2%	1.0%	89%
AA 1796 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	EWR 11:57	13%	4%	1.1%	81%
F9 2472 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:50	EWR 12:31	15%	6%	1.1%	83%
UA 1268 United	DFW 09:21	EWR 13:53	16%	7%	0.8%	no record
UA 1574 United Flight history →	DFW 13:00	EWR 17:37	27%	12%	0.8%	78%
AA 813 American Flight history →	DFW 11:49	EWR 16:25	28%	12%	1.1%	69%
AA 618 American Flight history →	DFW 18:15	EWR 22:51	34%	13%	1.4%	56%
UA 2461 United	DFW 17:01	EWR 21:32	34%	14%	0.8%	no record
AA 2861 American Flight history →	DFW 14:37	EWR 19:12	41%	15%	1.1%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON