Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Key West on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Key West on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Key West is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 11:30 → EYW 13:23DL 1472	7h 03m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	DFW 12:17 → ATL 15:35DL 961	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 17:58 → EYW 19:56DL 2815	6h 39m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 15:25 → EYW 17:23DL 2168	6h 17m	99%	86%
American Details →	DFW 05:00 → MIA 08:55AA 3189	3h 36m Miami	MIA 12:31 → EYW 13:39AA 3577 · flown by Envoy	7h 39m	100%	84%
American Details →	DFW 04:55 → CLT 08:38AA 1091	2h 28m Charlotte	CLT 11:06 → EYW 13:36AA 1816	7h 41m	98%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON