Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2511 at 07:23 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 2511 DFW 07:23 → FLL 11:23 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2798 DFW 14:30 → FLL 18:31 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2511 American	DFW 07:23	FLL 11:23	14%	3%	0.9%	no record
B6 2282 JetBlue Flight history →	DFW 07:00	FLL 10:57	15%	5%	0.8%	83%
AA 1390 American Flight history →	DFW 10:25	FLL 14:25	20%	6%	0.9%	67%
AA 1373 American Flight history →	DFW 12:37	FLL 16:38	21%	6%	0.9%	77%
AA 3220 American	DFW 11:46	FLL 15:47	22%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 1847 American Flight history →	DFW 19:10	FLL 23:21	25%	9%	1.4%	62%
B6 482 JetBlue Flight history →	DFW 11:28	FLL 15:24	26%	10%	0.9%	76%
B6 1882 JetBlue Flight history →	DFW 16:10	FLL 20:10	30%	13%	1.1%	25%
F9 3318 Frontier	DFW 13:42	FLL 17:45	31%	9%	1.0%	no record
AA 2798 American	DFW 14:30	FLL 18:31	31%	7%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON