Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3820 at 15:06 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 3820 DFW 15:06 → FSD 17:16 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 2937 DFW 19:49 → FSD 21:58 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3820 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 15:06	FSD 17:16	14%	3%	0.8%	88%
AA 2872 American Flight history →	DFW 09:59	FSD 12:18	19%	5%	0.7%	65%
AA 2937 American Flight history →	DFW 19:49	FSD 21:58	35%	11%	0.8%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON