Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


MQ 4001 Envoy	DFW 14:57	GJT 16:09	12%	2%	0.7%	no record
OO 6235 SkyWest	DFW 08:58	GJT 10:18	12%	3%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Junction on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Grand Junction is 1 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:54UA 773	2h 41m Denver	DEN 09:35 → GJT 10:44UA 4704 · flown by SkyWest	5h 59m	100%	89%
American Details →	DFW 12:26 → PHX 13:12AA 336	2h 57m Phoenix	PHX 16:09 → GJT 18:47AA 6491 · flown by SkyWest	7h 21m	98%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON