Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3167 at 08:53 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3167 American Flight history →	DFW 08:53	GRR 12:24	14%	4%	1.1%	85%
AA 310 American Flight history →	DFW 13:03	GRR 16:31	29%	9%	1.6%	62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Grand Rapids is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 09:49 → GRR 11:43DL 2547	5h 23m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	DFW 06:55 → MSP 09:23DL 1276	3h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 12:48 → GRR 15:17DL 1245	7h 22m	99%	88%
United Details →	DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:54UA 773	3h 04m Denver	DEN 09:58 → GRR 14:35UA 2637	7h 50m	100%	88%
Frontier Details →	DFW 06:58 → DEN 08:09F9 2549	2h 38m Denver	DEN 10:47 → GRR 15:32F9 1248	7h 34m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 15:19 → GRR 17:14DL 2058	6h 08m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	DFW 11:16 → MSP 13:44DL 2972	2h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 16:02 → GRR 18:26DL 1555	6h 10m	98%	83%
United Details →	DFW 07:08 → ORD 09:50UA 1695	3h 08m Chicago	ORD 12:58 → GRR 15:13UA 2751	7h 05m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	DFW 13:50 → ATL 17:14DL 414	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → GRR 21:51DL 2210	7h 01m	97%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON