Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3886 at 09:32 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 3886 DFW 09:32 → GSO 13:16 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1316 DFW 19:17 → GSO 22:56 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3886 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:32	GSO 13:16	8%	2%	0.8%	91%
AA 2242 American Flight history →	DFW 14:04	GSO 17:54	28%	7%	0.9%	61%
AA 1316 American Flight history →	DFW 19:17	GSO 22:56	30%	7%	1.0%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON