Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3986 at 09:41 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 3986 DFW 09:41 → GSP 13:09 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 2992 DFW 19:50 → GSP 23:16 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3986 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:41	GSP 13:09	10%	2%	0.8%	83%
MQ 3483 Envoy	DFW 15:55	GSP 19:25	17%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1805 American Flight history →	DFW 13:20	GSP 16:57	24%	5%	0.8%	79%
AA 2992 American Flight history →	DFW 19:50	GSP 23:16	29%	8%	0.8%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON