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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: American via LAX, leaving 11:38, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 5 American Flight history → DFW 11:30 HNL 14:26 31% 14% 1.2% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 5 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183 1h 26m Detroit DTW 10:30 → HNL 14:07DL 307 13h 47m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:51 → ATL 09:02DL 401 48m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837 12h 29m 95% 74%
AmericanDetails → DFW 11:38 → LAX 13:05AA 442 1h 50m Los Angeles LAX 14:55 → HNL 17:57AA 143 11h 19m 96% 72%
DeltaDetails → DFW 08:13 → SLC 09:47DL 1291 1h 58m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 11h 06m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → DFW 06:55 → MSP 09:23DL 1276 47m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → HNL 13:43DL 312 11h 48m 91% 69%
AmericanDetails → DFW 07:08 → PHX 07:34AA 474 2h 57m Phoenix PHX 10:31 → HNL 14:16AA 693 12h 08m 98% 68%
AlaskaDetails → DFW 13:55 → SAN 15:07AS 551 2h 19m San Diego SAN 17:26 → HNL 20:10AS 828 11h 15m 97% 65%
AmericanDetails → DFW 07:13 → LAX 08:30AA 3317 50m Los Angeles LAX 09:20 → HNL 12:20AA 31 10h 07m 84% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON