Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4036 at 07:52 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 4036 DFW 07:52 → HOU 09:15 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 3391 DFW 18:31 → HOU 19:48 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4036 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:52	HOU 09:15	9%	2%	0.9%	88%
OO 6186 SkyWest	DFW 12:04	HOU 13:24	12%	7%	0.9%	no record
OO 6382 SkyWest	DFW 09:43	HOU 11:02	13%	7%	0.9%	no record
MQ 4015 Envoy	DFW 14:27	HOU 15:44	15%	3%	0.9%	no record
OO 6252 SkyWest	DFW 16:21	HOU 17:41	19%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 3391 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:31	HOU 19:48	20%	4%	1.2%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON