Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3476 at 07:11 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 3476 DFW 07:11 → HSV 09:06 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 5383 DFW 11:57 → HSV 13:52 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3476 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:11	HSV 09:06	9%	2%	0.9%	94%
OO 6302 SkyWest	DFW 09:44	HSV 11:42	15%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 3801 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 16:54	HSV 18:49	15%	3%	1.0%	67%
AA 3967 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 13:59	HSV 15:54	16%	3%	0.9%	88%
AA 5383 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 11:57	HSV 13:52	20%	6%	1.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON