Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2639 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 2639 DFW 07:20 → IAD 11:26 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2254 DFW 18:46 → IAD 22:54 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2639 United Flight history →	DFW 07:20	IAD 11:26	8%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 524 American Flight history →	DFW 10:26	IAD 14:40	14%	4%	0.7%	90%
UA 358 United Flight history →	DFW 12:25	IAD 16:31	15%	5%	0.6%	86%
F9 3208 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:30	IAD 11:44	16%	5%	0.8%	84%
UA 1240 United Flight history →	DFW 17:15	IAD 21:24	19%	7%	0.6%	79%
AA 1863 American Flight history →	DFW 13:58	IAD 18:13	22%	7%	0.7%	70%
AA 2254 American	DFW 18:46	IAD 22:54	27%	7%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON