Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2260 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 2260 DFW 05:10 → IAH 06:22 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2438 DFW 17:12 → IAH 18:30 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2260 United Flight history →	DFW 05:10	IAH 06:22	5%	2%	0.6%	95%
AA 3829 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 10:28	IAH 11:48	10%	2%	0.8%	97%
UA 2670 United Flight history →	DFW 07:00	IAH 08:26	11%	4%	0.6%	72%
AA 3598 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:13	IAH 08:43	11%	3%	0.8%	69%
UA 1586 United Flight history →	DFW 09:46	IAH 11:03	13%	4%	0.6%	82%
AA 1407 American Flight history →	DFW 08:29	IAH 09:47	17%	5%	0.7%	77%
UA 1609 United Flight history →	DFW 17:24	IAH 18:46	20%	8%	0.6%	60%
UA 2682 United Flight history →	DFW 16:01	IAH 17:18	21%	7%	0.6%	67%
MQ 3908 Envoy	DFW 18:14	IAH 19:25	22%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1397 American	DFW 11:57	IAH 13:15	22%	7%	0.8%	no record
OH 5576 PSA	DFW 14:05	IAH 15:17	23%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 2438 American Flight history →	DFW 17:12	IAH 18:30	31%	11%	0.8%	60%
UA 3985 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	DFW 14:15	IAH 15:37	29%	17%	0.0%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON