Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: MQ 4032 at 07:44 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–18%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4032 DFW 07:44 → ICT 09:09 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2304 DFW 14:20 → ICT 15:51 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4032 Envoy	DFW 07:44	ICT 09:09	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 4142 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:31	ICT 10:55	7%	2%	0.7%	83%
OH 5372 PSA	DFW 12:13	ICT 13:39	13%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 3691 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:07	ICT 18:30	15%	4%	0.7%	67%
OO 6236 SkyWest	DFW 17:41	ICT 19:07	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 2304 American	DFW 14:20	ICT 15:51	23%	10%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON