Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


MQ 4016 Envoy	DFW 12:13	ILM 16:13	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3355 Envoy	DFW 19:04	ILM 22:55	18%	5%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wilmington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Wilmington is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → ILM 13:43DL 731	7h 23m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 16:28 → ILM 18:03DL 1292	6h 57m	99%	88%
American Details →	DFW 04:55 → CLT 08:38AA 1091	3h 35m Charlotte	CLT 12:13 → ILM 13:19AA 5416 · flown by PSA	7h 24m	100%	88%
American Details →	DFW 07:00 → CLT 10:44AA 317	2h 56m Charlotte	CLT 13:40 → ILM 14:51AA 2413	6h 51m	99%	84%
American Details →	DFW 04:54 → ORD 07:28AA 1938	1h 21m Chicago	ORD 08:49 → ILM 12:12AA 3970 · flown by Envoy	6h 18m	96%	84%
American Details →	DFW 07:02 → DCA 10:59AA 1623	2h 34m Washington	DCA 13:33 → ILM 15:04AA 5313 · flown by PSA	7h 02m	99%	79%
American Details →	DFW 07:30 → PHL 11:52AA 415	1h 20m Philadelphia	PHL 13:12 → ILM 14:59AA 6133 · flown by Piedmont	6h 27m	94%	76%
American Details →	DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696	1h 39m Charlotte	CLT 17:15 → ILM 18:27AA 2105	5h 32m	94%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DFW 16:18 → PHL 20:56AA 1945	59m Philadelphia	PHL 21:55 → ILM 23:45AA 6083 · flown by Piedmont	6h 27m	72%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON