Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1506 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 1506 DFW 07:10 → IND 10:30 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 2784 DFW 18:01 → IND 21:25 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1506 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	IND 10:30	12%	4%	0.8%	88%
F9 3202 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:27	IND 10:53	15%	5%	0.8%	85%
AA 3312 American	DFW 10:22	IND 13:51	17%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1450 American	DFW 13:12	IND 16:34	24%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 1413 American	DFW 16:17	IND 19:45	27%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 2784 American	DFW 18:01	IND 21:25	29%	9%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON