Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1923 at 08:19 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 1923 DFW 08:19 → JAC 10:11 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest AA 3042 DFW 17:17 → JAC 19:08 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1923 American Flight history →	DFW 08:19	JAC 10:11	17%	5%	0.9%	73%
AA 1883 American Flight history →	DFW 13:12	JAC 14:59	29%	9%	0.9%	66%
AA 3042 American Flight history →	DFW 17:17	JAC 19:08	33%	10%	0.9%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON