Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1061 at 07:48 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 1061 DFW 07:48 → JAX 11:26 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 679 DFW 18:44 → JAX 22:23 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1061 American Flight history →	DFW 07:48	JAX 11:26	10%	4%	0.9%	89%
AA 2329 American	DFW 09:28	JAX 13:06	16%	6%	5.3%	no record
AA 1472 American	DFW 12:56	JAX 16:38	20%	8%	1.9%	no record
AA 1460 American	DFW 15:35	JAX 19:16	22%	10%	1.3%	no record
AA 2449 American Flight history →	DFW 17:45	JAX 21:16	27%	12%	1.2%	58%
AA 679 American Flight history →	DFW 18:44	JAX 22:23	28%	12%	1.2%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON