Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 454 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26%.

Safest bet that day DL 454 DFW 08:15 → JFK 12:59 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 578 DFW 16:13 → JFK 21:00 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 454 Delta Flight history →	DFW 08:15	JFK 12:59	7%	2%	0.9%	90%
AA 1766 American Flight history →	DFW 09:50	JFK 14:34	18%	5%	0.7%	75%
AA 1058 American	DFW 13:20	JFK 18:10	24%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 1248 American Flight history →	DFW 18:32	JFK 23:10	26%	8%	0.8%	64%
AA 578 American Flight history →	DFW 16:13	JFK 21:00	26%	10%	0.7%	57%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DFW 13:24 → DTW 17:10DL 735	49m Detroit	DTW 17:59 → JFK 19:39DL 1316	5h 15m	79%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON