Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: F9 1649 at 06:28 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32%.

Safest bet that day F9 1649 DFW 06:28 → LAS 07:31 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1771 DFW 19:22 → LAS 20:11 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 1649 Frontier	DFW 06:28	LAS 07:31	11%	4%	1.1%	no record
AA 1969 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	LAS 07:51	12%	3%	1.1%	83%
F9 1051 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 08:53	LAS 09:56	13%	4%	1.1%	86%
AA 1550 American	DFW 09:01	LAS 10:03	18%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 1482 American Flight history →	DFW 10:49	LAS 11:52	20%	6%	0.9%	78%
AA 1494 American Flight history →	DFW 09:38	LAS 10:37	20%	6%	1.0%	71%
AA 777 American Flight history →	DFW 12:18	LAS 13:06	26%	9%	1.0%	75%
AA 2376 American Flight history →	DFW 13:40	LAS 14:28	30%	12%	1.0%	54%
AA 1573 American	DFW 15:27	LAS 16:26	31%	14%	1.3%	no record
AA 2864 American Flight history →	DFW 16:58	LAS 17:48	32%	14%	0.9%	61%
AA 884 American Flight history →	DFW 17:50	LAS 18:42	32%	14%	0.9%	56%
AA 1771 American Flight history →	DFW 19:22	LAS 20:11	32%	13%	0.9%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON