Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2925 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 2925 DFW 05:56 → LGA 10:37 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest AA 610 DFW 14:48 → LGA 19:22 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2925 American Flight history →	DFW 05:56	LGA 10:37	10%	3%	1.8%	72%
DL 551 Delta Flight history →	DFW 07:00	LGA 11:29	11%	3%	1.2%	86%
DL 873 Delta Flight history →	DFW 10:35	LGA 15:10	17%	6%	1.2%	76%
AA 1609 American Flight history →	DFW 07:40	LGA 12:13	18%	4%	1.7%	83%
AA 1056 American Flight history →	DFW 08:25	LGA 13:00	18%	5%	1.5%	75%
AA 2178 American	DFW 09:31	LGA 14:11	25%	7%	1.4%	no record
AA 2922 American Flight history →	DFW 10:45	LGA 15:25	25%	8%	1.4%	69%
DL 846 Delta Flight history →	DFW 18:59	LGA 23:33	25%	8%	1.6%	59%
DL 856 Delta Flight history →	DFW 13:15	LGA 17:53	27%	9%	1.2%	64%
AA 1375 American	DFW 19:02	LGA 23:51	27%	9%	1.6%	no record
DL 869 Delta Flight history →	DFW 16:10	LGA 20:51	27%	11%	1.2%	69%
AA 2327 American Flight history →	DFW 11:43	LGA 16:31	29%	9%	1.4%	38%
AA 672 American Flight history →	DFW 12:33	LGA 17:21	29%	10%	1.4%	59%
AA 1806 American	DFW 13:51	LGA 18:30	34%	10%	1.6%	no record
AA 2570 American Flight history →	DFW 18:04	LGA 22:49	35%	12%	1.6%	64%
F9 3424 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 15:15	LGA 20:06	35%	16%	2.1%	61%
AA 2434 American	DFW 14:52	LGA 19:31	36%	11%	1.5%	no record
AA 2513 American Flight history →	DFW 16:49	LGA 21:29	37%	14%	1.7%	56%
AA 610 American Flight history →	DFW 14:48	LGA 19:22	38%	14%	1.6%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON