Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 8–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3850 DFW 07:09 → LIT 08:29 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest OH 5615 DFW 14:06 → LIT 15:28 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3850 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:09	LIT 08:29	8%	2%	0.7%	89%
AA 3898 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 11:38	LIT 12:58	11%	2%	0.7%	82%
AA 4309 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 15:39	LIT 16:59	14%	3%	0.7%	77%
MQ 3505 Envoy	DFW 16:52	LIT 18:12	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3519 Envoy	DFW 19:05	LIT 20:25	15%	3%	0.8%	no record
OH 5599 PSA	DFW 09:46	LIT 11:08	16%	5%	0.9%	no record
OH 5615 PSA	DFW 14:06	LIT 15:28	18%	6%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON