Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3643 DFW 08:42 → MAF 10:05 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 4279 DFW 18:29 → MAF 19:49 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3643 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 08:42	MAF 10:05	8%	2%	1.7%	85%
MQ 3469 Envoy	DFW 10:01	MAF 11:20	9%	2%	1.9%	no record
MQ 3512 Envoy	DFW 12:34	MAF 13:53	11%	2%	1.9%	no record
AA 5013 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 07:25	MAF 08:50	11%	3%	1.3%	81%
AA 3653 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 15:36	MAF 16:53	14%	3%	1.8%	80%
OO 5010 SkyWest	DFW 16:38	MAF 18:00	15%	6%	1.6%	no record
AA 4279 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:29	MAF 19:49	15%	4%	2.6%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON