Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2430 at 07:14 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 2430 DFW 07:14 → MCI 09:02 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3030 DFW 15:11 → MCI 17:00 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2430 American	DFW 07:14	MCI 09:02	9%	3%	0.9%	no record
MQ 3522 Envoy	DFW 11:59	MCI 13:41	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 3331 American Flight history →	DFW 09:00	MCI 10:48	14%	3%	0.8%	70%
AA 4165 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:05	MCI 18:46	14%	4%	0.7%	85%
AA 1376 American Flight history →	DFW 10:49	MCI 12:39	14%	4%	0.8%	83%
AA 2267 American Flight history →	DFW 20:19	MCI 21:57	23%	9%	1.0%	56%
AA 3030 American Flight history →	DFW 15:11	MCI 17:00	23%	8%	0.8%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON