Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2119 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 2119 DFW 07:05 → MCO 10:49 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AA 2974 DFW 17:18 → MCO 21:10 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2119 American Flight history →	DFW 07:05	MCO 10:49	12%	4%	0.7%	78%
F9 4018 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 09:18	MCO 13:11	15%	4%	0.9%	76%
AA 2136 American Flight history →	DFW 08:30	MCO 12:22	16%	5%	0.8%	83%
AA 2750 American Flight history →	DFW 09:25	MCO 13:14	18%	5%	0.8%	82%
F9 1952 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 13:35	MCO 17:29	19%	8%	4.0%	73%
AA 2151 American	DFW 10:58	MCO 14:45	20%	6%	1.2%	no record
AA 1615 American	DFW 12:12	MCO 16:02	23%	7%	1.3%	no record
AA 1692 American	DFW 13:31	MCO 17:21	28%	9%	3.9%	no record
AA 2791 American Flight history →	DFW 16:33	MCO 20:25	30%	11%	1.1%	44%
AA 2186 American Flight history →	DFW 18:30	MCO 22:20	32%	10%	1.2%	46%
AA 2974 American Flight history →	DFW 17:18	MCO 21:10	33%	11%	1.3%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON