tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 2469 at 18:48, with a 36% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2469 American Flight history → DFW 18:48 MDT 22:59 36% 11% 0.9% 54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Harrisburg on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Harrisburg is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 12:23 → MDT 14:25DL 1354 8h 05m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 15:41 → MDT 17:37DL 2857 6h 31m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → DFW 07:20 → IAD 11:26UA 2639 1h 19m Dulles IAD 12:45 → MDT 13:50UA 4372 · flown by CommuteAir 5h 30m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → DFW 07:00 → CLT 10:44AA 317 2h 28m Charlotte CLT 13:12 → MDT 15:00AA 5832 · flown by Piedmont 7h 00m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → DFW 06:45 → ATL 09:59DL 893 1h 16m Atlanta ATL 11:15 → MDT 13:17DL 4717 · flown by Endeavor 5h 32m 97% 77%
AmericanDetails → DFW 07:30 → PHL 11:52AA 415 1h 03m Philadelphia PHL 12:55 → MDT 14:00AA 5963 · flown by Piedmont 5h 30m 91% 76%
AmericanDetails → DFW 09:38 → PHL 14:00AA 402 3h 50m Philadelphia PHL 17:50 → MDT 18:57AA 5949 · flown by Piedmont 8h 19m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → DFW 04:55 → CLT 08:38AA 1091 1h 07m Charlotte CLT 09:45 → MDT 11:37AA 5835 · flown by Piedmont 5h 42m 95% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DFW 16:18 → PHL 20:56AA 1945 59m Philadelphia PHL 21:55 → MDT 23:10AA 5944 · flown by Piedmont 5h 52m 72% 53%
AmericanDetails → DFW 14:51 → BOS 19:44AA 2306 46m Boston BOS 20:30 → MDT 22:10AA 4715 · flown by Republic 6h 19m 54% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON