Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, F9 2882 at 09:35, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


F9 2882 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 09:35	MDW 12:06	18%	6%	0.9%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 36m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	6h 09m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183	3h 21m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	7h 26m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	DFW 11:16 → MSP 13:44DL 2972	2h 54m Minneapolis	MSP 16:38 → MDW 18:18DL 4714 · flown by Endeavor	7h 01m	98%	58%
Delta Details →	DFW 11:19 → DTW 15:02DL 2746	3h 05m Detroit	DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor	7h 10m	98%	58%
Delta Details →	DFW 06:55 → MSP 09:23DL 1276	2h 07m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	6h 14m	98%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON