Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: MQ 3528 at 07:18 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–26%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3528 DFW 07:18 → MEM 08:55 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2153 DFW 16:44 → MEM 18:30 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3528 Envoy	DFW 07:18	MEM 08:55	10%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 3888 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 12:53	MEM 14:35	12%	3%	0.8%	89%
AA 1935 American Flight history →	DFW 09:39	MEM 11:11	17%	3%	0.8%	64%
AA 3932 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:44	MEM 19:21	18%	4%	0.8%	64%
AA 2969 American Flight history →	DFW 15:18	MEM 17:02	25%	6%	0.8%	84%
AA 2153 American Flight history →	DFW 16:44	MEM 18:30	26%	8%	0.8%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON