Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3189 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 3189 DFW 05:00 → MIA 08:55 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 1167 DFW 14:25 → MIA 18:24 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3189 American Flight history →	DFW 05:00	MIA 08:55	9%	3%	1.1%	84%
AA 3055 American Flight history →	DFW 06:00	MIA 10:00	13%	3%	0.9%	81%
AA 3290 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	MIA 11:11	18%	3%	0.9%	82%
AA 1219 American	DFW 08:55	MIA 12:55	18%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 1454 American	DFW 10:24	MIA 14:24	23%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 2461 American	DFW 12:55	MIA 17:02	30%	7%	0.9%	no record
F9 2136 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 13:09	MIA 17:12	32%	11%	1.1%	70%
F9 2676 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 18:02	MIA 22:06	33%	14%	1.6%	70%
AA 2050 American Flight history →	DFW 17:43	MIA 21:44	34%	11%	1.4%	63%
AA 3308 American Flight history →	DFW 16:30	MIA 20:35	35%	10%	1.5%	56%
AA 942 American	DFW 16:15	MIA 20:19	36%	11%	1.2%	no record
AA 1167 American Flight history →	DFW 14:25	MIA 18:24	37%	10%	1.0%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON