tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2581 at 08:57 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2581 American Flight history → DFW 08:57 MKE 11:30 15% 5% 0.8% 80%
AA 869 American Flight history → DFW 14:22 MKE 16:55 26% 8% 0.9% 71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 10:51 → MKE 11:53DL 1151 6h 33m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → DFW 06:45 → ATL 09:59DL 893 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 12:53 → MKE 13:50DL 1246 7h 05m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:54UA 773 3h 03m Denver DEN 09:57 → MKE 13:24UA 1836 7h 39m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → DFW 05:10 → IAH 06:22UA 2260 58m Houston IAH 07:20 → MKE 10:05UA 6149 · flown by Mesa 4h 55m 94% 87%
DeltaDetails → DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 16:37 → MKE 17:40DL 1206 7h 34m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → DFW 04:55 → CLT 08:38AA 1091 2h 24m Charlotte CLT 11:02 → MKE 12:13AA 3193 7h 18m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → DFW 13:50 → ATL 17:14DL 414 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 19:48 → MKE 20:54DL 2388 7h 04m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → DFW 07:08 → PHX 07:34AA 474 2h 31m Phoenix PHX 10:05 → MKE 15:55AA 1646 8h 47m 97% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DFW 14:15 → ORD 16:57UA 2160 48m Chicago ORD 17:45 → MKE 18:48UA 5555 · flown by SkyWest 4h 33m 70% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON