tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1141 at 08:39 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 34%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1141 American DFW 08:39 MSN 11:14 19% 6% 0.7% no record
AA 1660 American DFW 14:47 MSN 17:13 34% 10% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839 1h 22m Atlanta ATL 14:47 → MSN 15:51DL 2599 5h 45m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183 3h 22m Detroit DTW 12:26 → MSN 12:42DL 844 7h 22m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → DFW 04:55 → CLT 08:38AA 1091 3h 41m Charlotte CLT 12:19 → MSN 13:34AA 2443 8h 39m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401 46m Atlanta ATL 09:20 → MSN 10:22DL 2681 5h 02m 94% 83%
AmericanDetails → DFW 05:47 → ORD 08:13AA 2999 3h 29m Chicago ORD 11:42 → MSN 12:49AA 6256 · flown by SkyWest 7h 02m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → DFW 06:55 → MSP 09:23DL 1276 49m Minneapolis MSP 10:12 → MSN 11:19DL 4102 · flown by SkyWest 4h 24m 91% 82%
AmericanDetails → DFW 08:38 → ORD 11:14AA 328 2h 51m Chicago ORD 14:05 → MSN 15:14AA 4038 · flown by Envoy 6h 36m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → DFW 07:08 → ORD 09:50UA 1695 3h 09m Chicago ORD 12:59 → MSN 14:01UA 2349 6h 53m 99% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON