Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1276 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 1276 DFW 06:55 → MSP 09:23 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2806 DFW 18:51 → MSP 21:21 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1276 Delta Flight history →	DFW 06:55	MSP 09:23	5%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2972 Delta Flight history →	DFW 11:16	MSP 13:44	9%	3%	0.6%	84%
AA 2220 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	MSP 09:52	10%	3%	0.7%	83%
DL 1629 Delta	DFW 15:19	MSP 17:41	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 1625 Delta	DFW 18:35	MSP 20:56	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1668 American	DFW 11:49	MSP 14:20	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
F9 3224 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 15:30	MSP 18:12	19%	9%	0.8%	77%
AA 2406 American Flight history →	DFW 15:48	MSP 18:18	25%	10%	0.7%	62%
AA 2806 American Flight history →	DFW 18:51	MSP 21:21	27%	10%	0.8%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON