Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2157 at 07:42 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 2157 DFW 07:42 → MSY 09:27 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 2291 DFW 17:17 → MSY 19:01 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2157 American Flight history →	DFW 07:42	MSY 09:27	11%	4%	0.9%	79%
AA 1684 American	DFW 08:55	MSY 10:39	13%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 1650 American	DFW 10:00	MSY 11:43	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2627 American	DFW 13:22	MSY 15:06	20%	7%	0.8%	no record
F9 4994 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 14:52	MSY 16:39	22%	8%	0.8%	72%
AA 3254 American Flight history →	DFW 16:22	MSY 18:07	24%	9%	0.8%	56%
AA 2291 American Flight history →	DFW 17:17	MSY 19:01	28%	10%	1.0%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON