Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OH 5653 at 12:39, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OH 5653 PSA	DFW 12:39	MYR 16:27	17%	5%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Myrtle Beach is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00DL 3182	6h 40m	100%	88%
American Details →	DFW 04:55 → CLT 08:38AA 1091	1h 35m Charlotte	CLT 10:13 → MYR 11:23AA 2431	5h 28m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	DFW 12:17 → ATL 15:35DL 961	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 17:48 → MYR 19:07DL 1093	5h 50m	99%	81%
American Details →	DFW 09:38 → PHL 14:00AA 402	2h 19m Philadelphia	PHL 16:19 → MYR 18:20AA 5849 · flown by Piedmont	7h 49m	94%	74%
American Details →	DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696	2h 05m Charlotte	CLT 17:41 → MYR 18:52AA 1417	5h 57m	96%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON