Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: American via Phoenix, leaving 08:55, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Kahului on time.

Nonstops that day


AA 123 American Flight history →	DFW 11:20	OGG 14:10	25%	9%	0.7%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 5 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DFW 07:08 → PHX 07:34AA 474	3h 29m Phoenix	PHX 11:03 → OGG 14:32AA 645	12h 24m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	DFW 08:13 → SLC 09:47DL 1291	1h 43m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623	10h 55m	97%	75%
Alaska Details →	DFW 09:00 → SEA 11:20AS 365	2h 33m Seattle	SEA 13:53 → OGG 16:59AS 223	12h 59m	98%	74%
Alaska Details →	DFW 06:24 → SEA 08:45AS 543	1h 30m Seattle	SEA 10:15 → OGG 13:19AS 929	11h 55m	97%	64%
United Details →	DFW 07:06 → SFO 09:13UA 790	52m San Francisco	SFO 10:05 → OGG 12:34UA 573	10h 28m	84%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON